Retailers’ confidence at two-year high, Retail NZ survey shows

shoppers — The number of retailers meeting their sales targets edged above 50 per cent. (Source: Bigstock)

By Sean Cao Feb 17, 2026

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New Zealand retailers’ confidence level has reached a two-year high, reflecting signs of recovery in the wake of the economic downturn, Retail NZ’s survey shows.

According to the latest Retail Radar report, which covers Q4 2025, 76.7 per cent of respondents say they are ‘confident’ or ‘very confident’ their business will survive the next 12 months.

“This is a big jump on the 65.5 per cent confidence rate in our previous survey, and a positive sign that retailers may finally be starting to realise those economic green shoots on the shop floor,” Retail NZ CEO Carolyn Young said.

“Importantly, the proportion of retailers feeling ‘not confident’ their business will get through the next 12 months has almost halved since our Q3 2025 Retail Radar survey, to just 6.6 per cent.”

The survey also finds that the number of retailers meeting their sales targets edged above 50 per cent for the first time since Q1 2023.

However, there is a distinct gap between retailers who have stabilised and those who are still struggling.

About 81 per cent of those who met their targets expect to continue to do so. In contrast, only 28 per cent of those missing the mark expect a turnaround.

“We are also hearing of retailers downgrading their targets and taking on less stock, which indicates retailers are no longer expecting a quick bounce-back, and instead have a reluctant realism that spending could remain slow-going for a while yet,” Young added.

New holiday spending pattern

The report shows Black Friday sales are spreading holiday retail spending thinner, rather than growing the overall pie.

While 14 per cent of respondents experienced a revenue lift during the period, 16 per cent reported that Black Friday actually reduced their overall Q4 profitability. Some 43 per cent chose not to participate in Black Friday promotions at all.

“The holiday spending period no longer has a single peak at Christmas; rather, shoppers are stretching the same spend over both November and December, something that we’ve also seen in card spending data”, Young explained.

“We are seeing Black Friday actually cannibalising the traditional Christmas and Boxing Day spend, and many retailers do not see any value in participating in the November sales,” she added.