Both Stats NZ and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) have published data showing a positive upturn for the nation’s retail sector.

In the final quarter of 2025, retail trade volumes increased by 1.9 per cent, with electronic goods leading the way with a 9.8 per cent increase. The total value of retail sales, across the quarter, rose by 1.7 per cent.

“Fourteen of the 16 regions had higher retail sales values in the September 2025 quarter compared with the June 2025 quarter,” said Stats NZ GM and macroeconomic spokesperson, Jason Attewell.

“Growth in retail sales values was stronger in the South Island, up 1.7 per cent in the September 2025 quarter compared with 1.4 per cent in the North Island. However, the North Island still accounts for over 70 per cent of retail sales.”

NZIER’s quarterly survey added to the positive news, finding that a net 9 per cent of firms expect an improvement in general economic conditions over the coming months. This represented an increase from the net 4 per cent of firms that had felt downbeat about the general economic outlook in the previous quarter.

The retail sector responded positively, NZIER said. While demand was still weak in the December quarter, a “notable” proportion of retailers said they expected a recovery in the next quarter. 

NZIER added: “While some retailers were able to raise prices, retail sector profitability remained weak as cost pressures intensified.

“The optimism in the retail and services sectors reflects the expectations that many households will likely face reduced mortgage repayments as they roll over to lower mortgage rates over the coming year.”