Following the largest online Black Friday period on record, retailers are reporting a rise in product returns across multiple categories. The trend is placing pressure on post-purchase operations at a time when brands are seeking greater stability and predictability.

According to Seel’s US-produced State of Returns and Refunds 2025 report, retailers expect 20-25 per cent of annual sales to be returned in 2025, representing approximately US$1 trillion in value. The online returns rate is forecast to reach 19.3 per cent, highlighting the growing scale of returns within e-commerce.

Returns experience and repeat purchase behaviour

The post-purchase experience is increasingly shaping repeat purchase behaviour and overall brand evaluation. Based on analysis of more than 10 million transactions across thousands of merchants, Seel identifies delivery issues, product defects, shifts in buyer confidence and fraud risk as the primary drivers of returns.

Consumer behaviour data also underscores the role of returns policies in purchase decisions. Seel found that 82 per cent of consumers consider free returns when deciding to buy, and 81 per cent review return policies before completing a purchase.

Meanwhile, 71 per cent report they are less likely to shop with a retailer again following a poor returns experience. More than three-quarters of respondents indicated they would not complete a purchase if returns were not permitted. The average value of returned items ranges between $100 and $200.

Survey data also shows that post-purchase trust is becoming a central factor in purchasing decisions. Uptake of post-purchase protection options for products priced above $50 increased by 50 per cent, reflecting growing expectations around reassurance after checkout. 

In this context, refund speed and process transparency are increasingly viewed as part of the product itself, influencing conversion and repeat purchase rates.

Key drivers of returns

Delivery-related issues account for approximately 75 per cent of total return requests on Seel’s platform. Common reasons include delayed delivery, non-receipt and logistics errors, alongside factors such as change-of-mind and defective products.

Improving delivery reliability remains one of the key areas for retailers to manage margins and maintain customer trust, particularly during peak trading periods.

Seel’s analysis shows that return activity increases by around 16 per cent during November and December compared with non-peak months. Consumers are purchasing earlier, initiating returns sooner and expecting faster refunds. 

When reverse logistics, system processing, customer service and restocking are taken into account, return-related costs can consume between 20 and 25 per cent of revenue, continuing to weigh on retail profitability.

Category-level differences

Return drivers vary by category. In fashion and accessories, return requests linked to delayed delivery and lost shipments have increased, while incorrect item shipments have declined. 

In contrast, within computing and electronics, performance issues and product faults remain the primary causes of returns, even as delivery delays have decreased year-on-year. These differences suggest that a single returns policy may not address category-specific drivers.

Secondhand growth and returns

The secondhand market continues to expand, although returns remain a key barrier. Many consumers report they will not complete a transaction without a returns option due to uncertainty around condition, fit and authenticity. 

Seel’s data shows that return rates for secondhand items are more than 140 per cent higher than for new products, presenting operational challenges for resale platforms and merchants when setting return policies.

Post-purchase as a competitive lever

As customer acquisition costs increase and differentiation becomes harder to sustain, retailers are placing greater emphasis on post-purchase experience as a source of competitive advantage. Streamlining returns and refunds supports customer trust and repeat purchasing, while return data can inform forecasting, merchandising and service decisions.

Investment in post-purchase operations is increasingly viewed as a way for retailers to manage margin pressure while maintaining long-term customer relationships in the period ahead.