The recent upheaval in global tariffs, driven by sweeping US trade policies, is fundamentally reshaping international supply chains. Australia stands to be both a beneficiary and a potential casualty in this realignment. One of the most important impacts is from the tariffs on Chinese goods. This has already disrupted traditional trade flows, with exporters from affected countries seeking alternative markets. Australian retailers, already battling with fierce competition from online global compe
mpetitors such as Shein and Temu, face even higher flows of Chinese-manufactured goods into the market. There is also an opportunity for Australian exporters, however, in markets where Chinese goods have become more expensive due to US tariffs.
While the latest 90-day deal for 10 per cent tariffs on US imports to China and 30 per cent for Chinese imports to the US has temporarily soothed financial markets, there are no guarantees that the issue won’t escalate again. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has emphasised that the China tariffs will revert to the previous 34 per cent (combined with existing duties for a total of 54 per cent) if no permanent deal is struck during the pause.
Supply-chain resilience is critical
In response to the volatility, supply-chain resilience has become more critical than ever. Surplus supply, redirected to markets like Australia, creates short-term opportunities such as cheaper input goods or inventory. But it also introduces risk due to unstable or opportunistic supplier relationships.
Additionally, the global reshuffling of shipping routes, port preferences and trade flows means longer lead times, congestion at alternative ports and unpredictable logistics costs. Retailers relying on ‘just-in-time’ inventory models may face unexpected stockouts or overstocking.
1. Resilience through diversification
Retailers must move away from over-reliance on single geographies, such as China, and instead develop multi-region sourcing strategies. This includes nearshoring where possible, such as sourcing from Southeast Asia instead of China, to reduce transport costs, shorten delivery times and improve oversight.
For categories such as perishables and high-value goods, there may be a strong business case for onshoring or regionalising production and fulfilment. Apple notably invested US$16 billion to diversify its production assets beyond China, with major investments in Mexico, India and the US.
In Australia, there’s already government support to re-shore manufacturing, with priority
areas including infrastructure, renewables and medical science. The latest federal budget also includes A$20 million to support Australian-made products.
2. Smarter, predictive forecasting
AI demand forecasting can help optimise stock levels without excessive capital lockup. AI is now accelerating its impact across the sector. Retailers are using AI not only for forecasting, but also for generating insights from previously siloed datasets, stress-testing scenarios, and assisting with traditionally labour-intensive planning tasks. The key is making supply chains genuinely adaptive, able to continuously learn from disruption and demand shifts. Here are some strategies for retailers to consider:
3. Strengthening logistics partnerships
Establishing robust agreements with freight and logistics partners, which include redundancy in freight routes, gives retailers options when bottlenecks occur. For example, instead of relying on a single trucking company, a retailer could use multiple carriers or transport methods to ensure delivery, even if a particular route is blocked.
When the Suez Canal was blocked in 2021, billions of dollars’ worth of freight was held up every day, with maritime traffic having to re-route via the Cape of Good Hope or even Arctic shipping routes, adding weeks of delay. There were further disruptions in 2024.
Similarly, in the Apac region, geopolitical tensions could affect existing shipping
routes, requiring companies to find alternatives.
One global footwear manufacturer was struggling with logistics operations. It carried out a global transport and fulfilment assessment, evaluating 13 freight forwarders and 21 global trade lanes. This identified duplication, misaligned partners and inefficiencies hidden across ocean, parcel, less-than-truckload (LTL) and e-commerce fulfilment networks.
Through data-driven sourcing, carrier consolidation and bid optimisation, the manufacturer lowered ocean freight costs by 5 per cent, despite rising market rates. By streamlining fulfilment across the Americas, EMEA and the Apac region, the company also reduced cycle times and added localised enhancements to service delivery and operational agility.
4. Transparency and sustainability
Consumers are increasingly concerned about product provenance, which has led to the
emergence of digital product passports (DPPs). These are digital records that track a product’s materials, components and lifecycle data, using technology such as blockchain.
Designed to support transparency and sustainability, DPPs help consumers and businesses understand origins, recyclability, and environmental impact, and will be mandated in the EU for many goods under new circular economy regulations from 2027.
For retail, this not only supports sustainability goals but also increases consumer trust and loyalty.
The retail industry is starting to see genuine convergence between physical supply chains and digital capabilities. It is moving from legacy siloed technology implementations toward truly integrated systems.
Retailers and brands that will win in 2025 and beyond are those that treat supply-chain transformation not as a technical project, but as a strategic enabler of customer experience, commercial agility and climate accountability.