“By 2015 the middle class will have disappeared in most developed countries taking mid-price retailers with them. Hence most consumer markets are already polarising between economy and premium sectors (low price versus luxury). However, customers can happily live in both segments buying $15 t-shirts one minute and $500 jeans the next”. So says Richard Watson from What’s Next. What’s Next is a trend report published by Watson, who is a futurist author, speaker, and scenario planner. Perha
ps Watson has ‘tongue in cheek’ when he makes such a bold statement, but the idea is an interesting one. Is this really what the customers want?
Most retailers chase the thick middle which suggests that Watson is wrong. But is looking at most retailers a good barometer?
In an article that I wrote some time ago I quoted from Jordan Ellenberg’s book, How Not To Be Wrong.
The crucial point was that the reason that planes were coming back with fewer hits to the engine during World War 2 was that planes that got hit in the engine weren’t coming back.
Likewise, if most retailers are targeting the thick middle, does this mean that they are right?
It is much more difficult to compete if everyone is chasing the same segment and this is what it is all about – competition.
If we abandon the thick middle and mid-price retailers disappear as Watson suggests, there will be a vacuum and as we all know from what Aristotle taught us, no void can occur because something will immediately fill anything giving rise to a void.
Economics 101 teaches us that perfect competition is achieved when supply equals demand. There will always be a demand for mid-priced goods and so there will always be a supply.
So Watson is clearly wrong. But let’s give him the benefit of the doubt. Let’s assume that he was using a bit of poetic licence.
The point that he makes which is a good one is that there are heaps of customers out there who will spend a fortune on couturier brands while shopping at Target for their underwear.
Stuart Bennie is a retail consultant at Impact Retailing www.impactretailing.com.au and can be contacted at stuart@impactretailing.com.au.