Auckland business confidence has staged a sharp recovery over the past three months, with fewer companies expecting an economic downturn and more preparing to invest, according to the Auckland Business Chamber’s Business Confidence Survey.

The share of businesses rating their overall confidence as negative or very negative fell from 54 per cent in May to 40 per cent in August, while positive sentiment rose from 15 per cent to 26 per cent.

Meanwhile, the proportion expecting the economy to decline over the next 12 months also more than halved, from 24 per cent to 10 per cent.

Simon Bridges, CEO of the Auckland Business Chamber, said the recovery tracks closely with the easing of the geopolitical shock that hit confidence earlier in the year.

“The strikes on Iran hit energy costs, inflation expectations, and geopolitical risk all at once, and confidence took a real hit. Now, we’re seeing a genuine and encouraging bounce back,” he said.

Business plans for the year ahead are also showing signs of progress, with intent to invest increasing to 59 per cent versus 50 per cent in May, while those planning to hire increased from 36 per cent to 50 per cent. Only 8 per cent now expect to reduce headcount.

More than half of businesses now expect revenue to grow over the next 12 months, up from 43 per cent in May.

“This isn’t just relief. It’s businesses regaining the confidence to invest and hire again. That’s a real swing in three months,” Bridges said.

However, consumer confidence and demand remain the biggest hiccup, cited by 64 per cent of respondents.

Concern about inflation and interest rates has eased from 55 per cent to 46 per cent, while geopolitical and trade risk fell from 45 per cent in May to 34 per cent as the Iran conflict became less prominent.

AI adoption and digital transformation are another emerging concern, rising from 13 per cent to 18 per cent over the three months.

“The message from this survey is that Auckland business is more resilient than the last three months might have suggested,” Bridges added.

“Confidence can move fast in both directions – it fell hard when the world became uncertain, and it’s recovered hard now that some of that uncertainty has lifted.”

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