Data from Worldline across core retail sectors shows consumer spending increased slightly in January compared with last year. However, while the result shows growth, mixed indicators suggest the recovery remains uneven.
Spending was affected by weather events in several regions. Bay of Plenty declined 3.4 per cent, and Gisborne fell 1 per cent for the month. These decreases were partly offset by a 1.3 per cent increase in Auckland/Northland.
“It’s great to see some positive sales and it gives us some hope that those green shoots we have been talking for several months might start to come through more strongly,” Retail NZ CEO Carolyn Young said.
“It’s early days, and it is off a low base, but it gives us something to be upbeat about following the disappointing December sales and yesterday’s unemployment data.”
Broader economic conditions continue to weigh on the sector. The unemployment rate for the December 2025 quarter rose to 5.4 per cent, according to Stats NZ. This was the highest level since September 2015.
Young said retailers may face slower growth as consumers remain focused on essential expenses.
The data indicates that further time is required for consumer confidence to recover to levels that support increased discretionary spending. Business confidence remains positive overall. However, New Zealanders have not yet shown sufficient confidence in economic conditions to lift discretionary spending.
“Many retailers will be feeling as though they are just treading water as the economy moves sideways, rather than forward,” Young said.
“It is just another example of the difficult environment our retailers are faced with.”
Data released by Centrix yesterday also showed retail business liquidations increased 34 per cent year-on-year.
Some indicators suggest retailers’ continued willingness to invest. “Credit demand increased by 13 per cent year on year, which suggests some business owners continue to maintain confidence and are prepared to invest in their operations,” she added.
Retail NZ has previously pointed to early signs of recovery following BFCM sales.
