hers abrupt shutdowns. But taken together, they point to a deeper trend, one reaching beyond cyclical headwinds or a post-pandemic correction. “This is structural, not cyclical,” Guy Llewelyn, assistant professor at EHL Campus (Singapore), told Inside Retail. “What we are currently seeing is a permanent recalibration of the operating environment.” Singapore’s retail and dining sectors – long defined by high productivity, dense foot traffic, and strong consumer spending – are entering a new phase, one in which legacy assumptions no longer hold and where survival increasingly depends on strategic clarity. System pressures and productivity gaps At the heart of the current shakeout lies a fundamental imbalance between rising costs and stagnant productivity. “Manpower costs have risen structurally, rent in prime retail locations remains elevated, and delivery platform economics have conditioned consumers to expect convenience at margins retailers can’t sustain,” Llewellyn said. “These changes are not temporary blips; they are the new baseline.” Data from the Singapore Institute of Technology (SIT) shows that between 2018 and 2023, F&B operating revenue grew by nearly 10 per cent, while productivity per worker grew by only 4 per cent. Meanwhile, operating costs rose about 12 per cent, outpacing revenue growth and squeezing margins. For many operators, high fixed costs, including rent, staffing and fit-outs, now require consistent volume to stay viable, but maintaining that volume is becoming harder. The pressures are not confined to the F&B industry. In retail, intensifying competition from global brands, digitally native players, and fast-fashion giants has raised the bar on pricing, assortment and convenience. Deliveroo’s exit underscores the difficulties of operating in a market where competitors can leverage broader ecosystems and cross-subsidise losses. “These restaurants and delivery platforms did not fail because they were poorly run,” Llewellyn added. “They failed because the structural conditions that made their models viable disappeared.” The modern consumer: Intentional and digital Alongside rising costs, consumer behaviour is changing fundamentally. Shoppers are no longer just spending; they are making deliberate choices about where and how they spend. “Singapore consumers have fundamentally shifted from transaction-based shopping to purpose-driven shopping,” Llewellyn said. “They research, they compare, and they make deliberate decisions.” In F&B, this has translated into fewer but more intentional dining occasions. Many consumers are cooking at home more often, reserving restaurant visits for either value- driven meals or special experiences. “What was typical five years ago is no longer the case,” Llewellyn noted. “Changes in market economics, from both restaurant and diner perspectives, have led to restaurant closures. The ones closing now are being replaced by different formats, different price points, different value propositions. This is an evolution of the market.” Retail has followed a similar trajectory. E-commerce and social-media platforms have fundamentally altered how consumers discover and purchase products. Price transparency is higher, alternatives are easier to access, and brand loyalty is more conditional. SIT reported that the F&B market in 2024 had 3793 new businesses open while 3047 closed, highlighting intense competition and oversupply. Physical stores now often serve as experiential touchpoints rather than engines of impulse buying. “When consumers visit a store today, they often already know what they want,” Llewellyn said. “Or they are looking for something that justifies the trip – an experience, a service, or a level of engagement they cannot get online.” This shift has placed pressure on traditional retail formats that rely heavily on foot traffic and spontaneous purchases. Department stores, mid-tier fashion chains and specialty retailers without clear differentiation are particularly exposed. At the same time, convenience has become a baseline expectation. Consumers expect to browse online, check inventory in real time, purchase seamlessly across channels and receive products quickly, often within the same day. “It is not that consumers won’t spend, they will, on things they value. But consumers are efficient about it.” The great polarisation: Why the middle is disappearing The combined impact of rising costs and shifting consumer behaviour is driving a clear structural outcome: Market polarisation. At one end of the spectrum are value-driven brands that offer high quality at accessible prices. At the other end are premium concepts delivering differentiated products or experiences. Both ends are proving resilient. “The mid-market is being hollowed out, and brands stuck there without a clear repositioning strategy are in existential danger,” Llewellyn said. This is where many of the recent closures sit. Businesses like Itacho Sushi and The Providore were neither clearly value-driven nor sufficiently differentiated to command a price premium. “They are too expensive to compete on value, but not differentiated enough to command premium pricing,” Llewellyn explained. The economics of the mid-market are particularly challenging. In cost structures, rent, labour, and fit-outs often resemble those of premium operators, but pricing power is limited by competition and consumer sensitivity. Fashion retail offers a parallel example. The closure of Zara’s sister brand, Pull&Bear, reflects broader pressures on mid-tier apparel brands caught between fast-fashion giants and premium labels. Even in specialty retail, the same pattern applies. T2 Tea and The Providore operated in segments dependent on discretionary spending, categories that are often first to be cut when consumers tighten budgets. For businesses in this middle ground, the strategic choices are increasingly stark. “Mid-market brands have three options,” Llewellyn said. “Move up, move down, or exit. Staying in the middle is becoming a no-win situation.” Moving up requires genuine differentiation: Better products, stronger branding, or unique experiences that justify premium pricing. Moving down requires cost discipline, operational efficiency, and a willingness to compete on value. Both paths are challenging. But failing to choose either is proving fatal. Reinvention in a new retail reality As the shakeout continues, what emerges is not a shrinking market, but a reshaped one. “This is not a decline, it’s an evolution,” Llewellyn said. “Demand is still there, but it is being redistributed.” Retailers and F&B operators are rethinking fundamentals. Large flagship stores are giving way to smaller, more efficient formats such as pop-ups, kiosks, and showroom-style spaces. Inventory models are becoming leaner, with consignment, drop shipping, and preorders. Digital channels and CRM systems are now crucial for owning customer relationships. “Relying purely on foot traffic is increasingly risky,” Llewellyn said. “You need to own the customer relationship.” Some players are already demonstrating what adaptation looks like. Fairprice Finest, part of the broader Fairprice supermarket ecosystem, has successfully positioned itself across both value and premium segments, while investing heavily in e-commerce and delivery. “They recognised early that the market was polarising,” Llewellyn said. “And they adapted accordingly. What they did well was not fight back against market polarisation. They now serve both ends with distinct formats. Fairprice has not tried to be premium; they’ve stayed value-focused while adding premium options for those who want them.” Looking ahead, the divide between winners and losers is likely to widen. Mid-tier department stores, generalist retailers and undifferentiated dining concepts face the greatest risk. Meanwhile, value-driven brands and premium, experience-led concepts are poised for growth. “The market opportunities are either to race to the bottom on cost or race to the top on experience,” Llewellyn concluded. In that sense, Singapore’s current wave of closures is not simply a sign of distress. It is a signal of transformation, a necessary reset that is redefining what it takes to succeed in one of the region’s most competitive markets. This story first appeared in the May 2026 issue of Inside Retail Asia magazine.