According to the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index, consumer sentiment eased, but remains well above its recent lows. Current expectations held firm, while future expectations waned. Softer future expectations suggest consumers are not getting ahead of themselves just yet. To a degree this is encouraging as borrow-and-spend style growth can only take consumers so far as they have to pay it back. Reasonable consumer confidence and the same for business sentiment signals&nb
sp;respectable but not stellar growth over the months ahead.
Reversing last month’s moves, inflation expectations fell, while house price growth expectations bounced. Both continue to bounce around.
Consumer confidence effectively put its feet up in December, easing off November’s six-month high.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index’s fall of four points to 118.7 is in line with the historical average.
A summary of the key results is as follows: confidence in the economy took a day trip, retracing some of its recent gains; net optimism in the economic outlook one and five years ahead fell nine and five points respectively to +six and +17 (the former is in line with its historical average while the latter is slightly below); a net six per cent of respondents are feeling financially better off compared to 12 months prior (that is down three points and expectations for 12 months ahead eased by a similar amount to +26; a net 38 per cent still believe it a good time to buy a major household item (a six-month high); the current conditions index dipped one point to 122.1 (this is only a modest retracement from last month’s eight point gain so there is still some Christmas cheer for retailers); the future conditions index fell six points to 116.3 advising care against overspending; and confidence fell in all regions in seasonally adjusted terms, but particularly so in the South Island regions.
